The move dramatized growing uncertainty, in Afghanistan as well as in NATO countries, over the future of the U.S.-led military campaign against the Taliban. It could also complicate the Obama administration’s deliberations over the pace of withdrawing U.S. troops.
The 33,000 “surge” troops President Obama sent to Afghanistan in 2010 are due to be home by the end of summer. The military believes that the remaining 68,000 should stay until the end of the 2014 summer fighting season to maintain and expand what they say are gains against the Taliban. Reopening NATO discussions on an end date would probably strengthen the hand of administration officials who envision a faster, phased drawdown that would save money as well as U.S. lives.
NATO first set the 2014 target 14 months ago and has scheduled a summit in Chicago in May to begin to flesh out withdrawal plans. That discussion is likely to be accelerated, with Sarkozy saying his government would propose the early drawdown at a meeting of alliance defense ministers next week in Brussels.
Sarkozy said he intended to explain his reasoning to Obama by telephone Saturday.
Obama administration officials reacted with skepticism to the broader proposal for advancing the overall NATO withdrawal date. Decisions within the Afghanistan coalition, a senior administration official said, “are taken by 50 countries, not one.” The coalition includes the 28 NATO members and an additional 22 countries.
“Anyone can propose anything for consideration,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid inflaming the issue.
The official said that while the administration “doesn’t necessarily disagree” that the transition process could be speeded up, turnover of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces is now planned to take place in five “tranches,” with each taking up to 18 months from start to finish. So far, only two tranches have been turned over to Afghan security control, with the most difficult still to come. Ending the process by the end of next year would require beginning all of the remaining tranches this year.
State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said that France had consulted ahead of time on its unilateral withdrawal decision and that “it could be managed” on the ground in Afghanistan. France is the fifth-largest contributor to the Afghan coalition, with 3,600 troops. Most are based in Kapisa province northeast of Kabul and engaged in training operations.
Sarkozy was said by his aides to have been deeply affected when an Afghan soldier opened fire with his automatic rifle on a group of French soldiers on Jan. 20 as they were finishing a jog around their base. Four were killed and about 15 wounded.
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