Iraq and Averages
We all make a common logical error that cognitive psychologists call the “availability heuristic.” It means making judgments about the future based not on a broad body of historical evidence but on recent, vivid events that skew our perceptions. My favorite recent example, for reasons that will be apparent, concerns this baseball season and the era’s finest sportswriter, The Post’s own Thomas Boswell.
admin @ April 3, 2008