As a colleague of mine just put it, it’s usually hard enough to get out of the National Weather Service assurances of whether it’s going to drizzle or not. So it was especially surprising to see such dire language from the NOAA alert as monstrous Hurricane Ike bears down on the Texas coast:

“LIFE THREATENING FLOOD INUNDATION IS LIKELY! ALL NEIGHBORHOODS…AND
POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES…WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE
PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY
RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE
DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY.
NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED…SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE
WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER
LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL
RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS
WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES
WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE…WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES…INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH
EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.”

Yikes. LiveScience has a chilling analysis of “Why Ike Could Be Texas’ Worst Nightmare”:

“…The most vulnerable part of Galveston Island is the western end, which isn’t protected by the 18-foot sea wall that the city erected after the catastrophe in 1900, [Mary Jo Naschke, the public information officer for the City of Galveston] told LiveScience. A tidal surge of just 5 feet above normal will inundate the roads in that part of town, she said.


Ike’s storm surge could reach 20 feet, which could cause water to spill over the walls.


…Houston’s downtown area, meanwhile, sits about 50 feet above sea level. The biggest concerns for this, the fourth most populous city in the United States, is high winds, along with flooding from rain if Ike decides to hang around for awhile.


…Wind could prove damaging to high-rise buildings. Hurricane Alicia, in 1983, was the last hurricane to make a direct hit on the city. It shattered many downtown windows by picking up debris with its ferocious winds.


High-rises are particularly vulnerable to a hurricane’s winds because they are so high up; a study conducted when Hurricane Georges hit Mississippi in 1998 showed that the winds 1,000 feet (305 meters) above the surface were 23 mph (37 kph) faster than those at ground level, putting the tops of skyscrapers more at risk, said Matt Moreland, a forecaster with the National Weather Service’s Houston/Galveston office.”

Looking for comprehensive coverage of Ike? Look no further than the Houston Chronicle, which already has video of waves in Galveston topping that seawall.

(Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)