Sam Stein in the Huffington Post writes that By The Numbers, A Brown Win Could Kill Health Care

Democratic leaders freaked out on Friday as they suddenly realized that nearly a year’s worth of health-care negotiations could be tripped up by an improbably close Senate race in Massachusetts….

If Republican Scott Brown emerge victorious (over Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley)– and, in the process, reduces the Senate Democratic Caucus from 60 to 59 — the numbers will be stacked against health care’s passage….It all comes down to timing. The Massachusetts election is being held this Tuesday the 19th, after which there is a 10-day period to count overseas ballots, screen votes for potential fraud, and certify a winner. Should he win, Brown would be seated by January 29.

It will be incredibly difficult if not impossible for health care reform negotiators in Congress to get a bill passed before then.

However Bloomberg is reporting:

Even if Democrats lose the special election to pick a new Massachusetts senator Tuesday, Congress may still pass health-care overhaul through a process called reconciliation, a top House Democrat said.

That procedure requires 51 votes rather than the 60 needed to prevent Republicans from blocking votes on President Barack Obama’s top legislative priorities. That supermajority is at risk as the Massachusetts race has tightened.

“Even before Massachusetts and that race was on the radar screen, we prepared for the process of using reconciliation,” Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said.

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