One of the biggest cliches in politics is the one that goes, “the only poll that matters is the poll taken on Election Day.”

It’s usually desperate — spoken most often by candidates trailing badly in scientific surveys.

And it’s usually false — pre-election polls matter because low numbers can discourage donors and volunteers, which in turn leads to even worse poll numbers followed by annihilation at the ballot box.

And yet. Every once in a while, results vindicate the cliche and remind us not to let resignation or overconfidence allow us to stay home on Election Day.

The cautionary tale we tell in these parts begins on Oct. 14, 1996, a little more than three weeks before a general election: